Final 2019 Oscar Predictions from Experts and Users

  • Publish Date: February 21, 2019
  • Comments: ↓ 8 user comments

Updated Sunday 2/24 with additional expert picks. All predicted winners remain unchanged except for Costume Design, which is once again a toss-up between The Favourite and Black Panther.

This year's picks, in black and white

2019 Oscar Preview

Could Roma make history as the first-ever foreign language film to take home the best picture Oscar? Experts, oddsmakers, and Metacritic users currently give Alfonso Cuarón's black-and-white period drama the edge.

The 91st Annual Academy Awards ceremony will air live on ABC on Sunday night at 8pm ET (5pm PT), with a rare no-host format (unless internet-fueled rumors of a surprise hosting appearance by Whoopi Goldberg prove to be true). If predictions hold, Roma will end the evening ahead of other contenders with four total Oscar wins (after leading all films with 10 nominations), while If Beale Street Could Talk, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Favourite and Vice could also win multiple Oscars.

Below, we have aggregated predictions from over 100 entertainment writers, critics, and awards experts (a list of names can be found at the bottom of the page), and compared them to the votes cast by nearly 5,500 Metacritic visitors who participated in our 10th annual Oscar poll. Also listed are the latest betting odds in each category as published at bet365 (as of February 21st).

Best picture and director

Despite recent reports of at least a few Academy voters not liking Roma all that much—and the Academy's general dislike of streaming services—Alfonso Cuarón's Netflix drama is the clear favorite to take home the top two awards. Most experts think that Green Book will get the best picture nod if Roma fails, and some also think that the Academy could finally give Spike Lee his first best director trophy. The latter scenario could be part of a trend this year of veteran talent receiving their first-ever Oscars; if you have both Glenn Close and Sam Elliott winning acting trophies in your pool, you may want to pencil in Lee's name as well.

Best Picture

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image
Image
Roma 4:11 Roma 74% Roma 53%
Green Book 11:4 Green Book 20% Green Book 12%
The Favourite 20:1 Black Panther 5% The Favourite 10%
Bohemian Rhapsody 25:1 2 tied with ... 1% A Star Is Born 10%

Best Director

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image
Image
Alfonso Cuarón
Roma
1:25 Alfonso Cuarón
Roma
93% Alfonso Cuarón
Roma
77%
Spike Lee
BlacKkKlansman
10:1 Spike Lee
BlacKkKlansman
7% Spike Lee
BlacKkKlansman
10%
Pawel Pawlikowski
Cold War
33:1     Yorgos Lanthimos
The Favourite
8%

Acting

If you think that there has to be at least one upset in the four acting categories, it's hard to predict which of the four favorites will fall; all four have broad support from the experts. (And all four acting favorites did go on to win last year, so it is definitely possible to have an upset-free year.) Interestingly, more than one expert opted to go with Roma's Marina de Tavira as a surprise winner in the supporting actress category, thinking that she must have support from the Academy given that she did not receive nominations from any other organization. But she (and other non-favorites) would still seem to be a longshot.

Lead Actress

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image
Image
Glenn Close
The Wife
1:8 Glenn Close
The Wife
98% Glenn Close
The Wife
37%
Olivia Colman
The Favourite
9:2 Olivia Colman
The Favourite
1% Olivia Colman
The Favourite
29%
Lady Gaga
A Star Is Born
20:1 Lady Gaga
A Star Is Born
1% Lady Gaga
A Star Is Born
20%

Lead Actor

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image
Image
Rami Malek
Bohemian Rhapsody
1:7 Rami Malek
Bohemian Rhapsody
90% Rami Malek
Bohemian Rhapsody
42%
Christian Bale
Vice
4:1 Christian Bale
Vice
6% Christian Bale
Vice
36%
Bradley Cooper
A Star Is Born
25:1 Bradley Cooper
A Star Is Born
3% Bradley Cooper
A Star Is Born
11%

Supporting Actress

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image
Image
Regina King
If Beale Street Could Talk
1:3 Regina King
If Beale Street Could Talk
89% Regina King
If Beale Street Could Talk
46%
Amy Adams
Vice
4:1 Rachel Weisz
The Favourite
6% Emma Stone
The Favourite
18%
Rachel Weisz
The Favourite
6:1 Marina de Tavira
Roma
3% Rachel Weisz
The Favourite
13%

Supporting Actor

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image
Image
Mahershala Ali
Green Book
1:20 Mahershala Ali
Green Book
88% Mahershala Ali
Green Book
63%
Richard E. Grant
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
9:1 Richard E. Grant
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
8% Sam Elliott
A Star Is Born
12%
Sam Elliott
A Star Is Born
16:1 Sam Elliott
A Star Is Born
3% Adam Driver
BlacKkKlansman
11%

Writing

As with the acting competitions, the two writing categories appear to be locked up, with The Favourite and BlacKkKlansman the clear favorites among all three groups. The experts are usually pretty good about predicting the screenplay categories, so this may not be the place to pencil in a surprise winner in your Oscar pool.

Original Screenplay

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image
Image
Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara
The Favourite
1:2 Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara
The Favourite
80% Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara
The Favourite
38%
Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie and Peter Farrelly
Green Book
9:4 Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie and Peter Farrelly
Green Book
13% Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie and Peter Farrelly
Green Book
24%
Alfonso Cuarón
Roma
15:2 Alfonso Cuarón
Roma
4% Alfonso Cuarón
Roma
23%

Adapted Screenplay

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image
Image
Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee
BlacKkKlansman
1:3 Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee
BlacKkKlansman
92% Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee
BlacKkKlansman
41%
Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
3:1 Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
5% Eric Roth and Bradley Cooper & Will Fetters
A Star Is Born
26%
Barry Jenkins
If Beale Street Could Talk
5:1 2 tied with ... 1% Barry Jenkins
If Beale Street Could Talk
20%

Other films and shorts

The animated feature category will be your easiest pick this year in your Oscar pool, and foreign-language is also a near-lock (though keep in mind that the Academy nominated Cold War for three Oscars, so there is definitely some love for that film among voters, and it is possible that the assumption that Roma will win best picture could encourage some voters to go in a different direction in the foreign film category). The documentary feature category—one that the experts got wrong last year—is a tighter race, as are two of the three short film categories (always among the toughest to predict).

Animated Feature

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image
Image
Spider-Man: Into the Spider Verse 1:20 Spider-Man: Into the Spider Verse 98% Spider-Man: Into the Spider Verse 77%
Incredibles 2 9:1 Incredibles 2 2% Isle of Dogs 13%
Isle of Dogs 11:1     Incredibles 2 8%

Documentary Feature

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image
Image
Free Solo 8:11 Free Solo 58% Free Solo 36%
RBG 1:1 RBG 33% RBG 25%
Minding the Gap 14:1 Minding the Gap 8% Minding the Gap 23%

Foreign Language Film

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image
Image
Roma 1:33 Roma 94% Roma 82%
Cold War 9:1 Cold War 6% Cold War 12%
Shoplifters 20:1     Shoplifters 5%

Animated Short

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image
Image
Bao 2:9 Bao 91% Bao 56%
Weekends 7:2 Weekends 4% One Small Step 15%
    Animal Behaviour 3% Animal Behaviour 12%

Documentary Short

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image
Image
Period. End of Sentence. 4:5 Period. End of Sentence. 59% End Game 30%
Black Sheep 6:5 Black Sheep 25% Black Sheep 25%
End Game 5:1 End Game 12% Lifeboat 18%

Live Action Short

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image
Image
Marguerite 8:11 Marguerite 65% Mother 37%
Skin 5:2 Skin 19% Marguerite 21%
Detainment 4:1 Detainment 7% Skin 17%

Music

The original score category is one of the few where experts and users diverge, and there is definitely room for an upset winner here. But don't expect an upset in the original song competition, which has one of the most overwhelming favorites in recent memory.

Original Score

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image
Image
Nicholas Britell
If Beale Street Could Talk
8:13 Nicholas Britell
If Beale Street Could Talk
59% Ludwig Göransson
Black Panther
32%
Ludwig Göransson
Black Panther
9:4 Ludwig Göransson
Black Panther
30% Nicholas Britell
If Beale Street Could Talk
24%
Marc Shaiman
Mary Poppins Returns
5:1 Terence Blanchard
BlacKkKlansman
8% Alexandre Desplat
Isle of Dogs
21%

Original Song

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image
Image
"Shallow"
from A Star Is Born
1:33 "Shallow"
from A Star Is Born
98% "Shallow"
from A Star Is Born
82%
"All the Stars"
from Black Panther
9:1 "All the Stars"
from Black Panther
2% "All the Stars"
from Black Panther
11%

Technical categories

The eight categories here are a mixed bag. Some—like cinematography and makeup/hairstyling—appear to be locked up. A few others are among this year's toughest races to predict, including the two sound categories, which this year are both tight races featuring nominees that utilize sound as a key plot device (A Quiet Place), or depict concert peformances (Bohemian Rhapsody, A Star Is Born), or had their exceptional sound design noted in multiple reviews (Roma). (And that doesn't even include First Man, the favorite in one of the two categories.) Note that costume design is now a coin flip; Black Panther, which once had a 14-point lead, is now in a dead heat with The Favourite.

Cinematography

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image
Image
Alfonso Cuarón
Roma
1:20 Alfonso Cuarón
Roma
96% Alfonso Cuarón
Roma
75%
Lukasz Zal
Cold War
8:1 Lukasz Zal
Cold War
4% Robbie Ryan
The Favourite
10%
Matthew Libatique
A Star Is Born
14:1     Lukasz Zal
Cold War
7%

Costume Design

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image
Image
The Favourite 2:5 (TIE) Black Panther AND The Favourite 50% The Favourite 51%
Black Panther 7:4     Black Panther 33%

Film Editing

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image
Image
Vice 4:5 Vice 56% The Favourite 26%
The Favourite 2:1 Bohemian Rhapsody 32% Bohemian Rhapsody 25%
Bohemian Rhapsody 10:3 BlacKkKlansman 8% BlacKkKlansman 22%

Makeup & Hairstyling

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image
Image
Vice 1:25 Vice 96% Vice 69%
Mary Queen of Scots 9:1 Mary Queen of Scots 4% Mary Queen of Scots 28%

Production Design

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image
Image
The Favourite 2:5 The Favourite 54% Black Panther 36%
Black Panther 7:4 Black Panther 45% The Favourite 29%
Roma 10:1 Roma 1% First Man 15%

Sound Editing

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image
Image
First Man 1:2 First Man 41% First Man 27%
A Quiet Place 6:4 Bohemian Rhapsody 30% A Quiet Place 26%
Bohemian Rhapsody 3:1 A Quiet Place 23% Bohemian Rhapsody 24%

Sound Mixing

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image
Image
Bohemian Rhapsody 1:2 Bohemian Rhapsody 66% Bohemian Rhapsody 30%
A Star Is Born 7:5 A Star Is Born 15% First Man 26%
First Man 10:1 First Man 14% A Star Is Born 18%

Visual Effects

Betting Odds Experts Users
Image Image
Image
Avengers: Infinity War 1:5 Avengers: Infinity War 66% Avengers: Infinity War 58%
First Man 7:2 First Man 29% First Man 21%
Ready Player One 10:1 Ready Player One 5% Ready Player One 15%

List of experts

The expert predictions compiled above come from the following sources (note that not every expert made picks in every category):


* As reported at Gold Derby (reflecting any updates through February 23, 2019).

Check our site late Sunday night after the ceremony for the final results as we reveal which users and experts had the most accurate predictions. We'll also collect reviews of the broadcast from TV critics.


Comments (8)

  • suavapa  

    from year to year increasingly the political ****

  • FelicityFenwick  

    Where is The Rider? And if ROMA doesn't take Best Picture, the show will have been a travesty.

  • LamontRaymond  

    Love live article....

  • andy24king24  

    Roma will make history come Monday morning, winning best film and best foreign language film at the Oscars. My pick a few months ago was A Star Is Born and that unfortunately will only get one Oscar if the Academy are feeling generous that is. One Oscar for an incredible film that truly deserves more.

  • dpaudiophile  

    Roma, A Star Is Born, and Into The Spider Verse are the three best movies of the past year.

  • Sankai  

    Agree!!!

  • Giopy  

    That's a really cool list

  • eli_fjr  

    I really need to watch most of these.

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